Re: Analysis of Bitcoin by Former IMF Economist / Current Central Banks Advisor

RE: "I suspect that if bitcoin grows, it will become less volatile"

Two propositions for consideration:

1. If any decentralized digital medium-of-exchange grows in use without the
maturity and predictability of a value-in-exchange benchmark*, it will
reproduce and even augment the aspects of fiat systems that add uncertainty
and risk to general commerce (trade in goods, services and rights);

2. If any decentralized digital medium-of-exchange grows in maturity
through association with a meaningful and predictable value-in-exchange
benchmark*, it will be well-positioned to grow in use because it would
provide a broad useful purpose in reducing uncertainty and risk in general
commerce (trade in goods, services and rights).
__________
* Such a benchmark must have the properties of transparency, verifiability,
integrity (i.e. freedom from manipulation), and reliability (i.e. freedom
from errors)

Joseph Potvin


On Sat, Jan 25, 2014 at 10:17 PM, Melvin Carvalho
<melvincarvalho@gmail.com>wrote:

>
>
>
> On 26 January 2014 03:44, Joseph Potvin <jpotvin@opman.ca> wrote:
>
>> [Tanential to the web-payments topic, except in terms of considering how
>> medium-of-exchange volatility is to be handled...]
>>
>> RE: "volatility being inherently terminal" + " when a store has a "50%
>> sale""
>>
>> Melvin, If you say that, then do you stand with the governments of
>> Finland and China who have determined that BTC is a virtual commodity, not
>> a type of money?
>>
>> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-19/bitcoin-becomes-commodity-in-finland-after-failing-currency-test.html
>>
>
> No strong opinion on this one, but satoshi had some interesting insights
> here:
>
> [[
> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583.msg11405#msg11405
>
> As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold
> but with the following properties: boring grey in colour, not a good
> conductor of electricity,not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily
> malleable either, not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose, and
> one special, magical property: can be transported over a communications
> channel.
>
> If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone
> wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit
> it, and have the recipient sell it.
>
> Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you've suggested, by
> people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange. (I would
> definitely want some) Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it.
>
> I think the traditional qualifications for money were written with the
> assumption that there are so many competing objects in the world that are
> scarce, an object with the automatic bootstrap of intrinsic value will
> surely win out over those without intrinsic value. But if there were
> nothing in the world with intrinsic value that could be used as money, only
> scarce but no intrinsic value, I think people would still take up something.
>
> (I'm using the word scarce here to only mean limited potential supply)
> ]]
>
>
>>
>> Sure, the prices of goods and services are supposed to rise and fall with
>> a vendors strategies and tactics in relation to supply and demand. But the
>> "prices" of currencies are not supposed to do that, rather they are
>> precisely supposed to NOT do that. Because in a well-functioning and
>> efficient market for goods and services, autonomy over goods and services
>> prices vests with the vendors of those goods and services, not with the
>> programmers of forex algorithms and other speculative instruments who have
>> nothing to do with those vendors.
>>
>> Sure, in today's forex market the whole point of the "Speculation Use
>> Case" is volatility. But the forex market as we've come to know it since
>> the early 1970s is not serving the economic purpose of facilitating the
>> "Goods and Services Commerce Use Case".
>>
>
> On volatility, I have no idea if it's good or bad for bitcoin, but I
> suspect that if bitcoin grows, it will become less volatile.
>
>
>>
>> Joseph Potvin
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Jan 25, 2014 at 9:06 PM, Melvin Carvalho <
>> melvincarvalho@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 26 January 2014 01:17, Joseph Potvin <jpotvin@opman.ca> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>> http://wcoats.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/cryptocurrencies-the-bitcoin-phenomena/
>>>>
>>>
>>> Quite an informative piece.  A few inaccuracies, such as he says that
>>> there's a 10 minute wait in the P2P network before a transaction is
>>> confirmed.  Actually most transactions are pretty instant.
>>>
>>> This is largely an opinion piece.  He seems to have a strong view on
>>> volatility being inherently terminal.  I think there's a difference between
>>> inflationary currencies and deflationary currencies on this point.  There's
>>> a long held view at central banks (in fact the ECB even made a cartoon
>>> about it) that deflation is bad.  The theory goes that if something is
>>> deflationary people will hold on to their money before spending it, so that
>>> prices come down.  However, prices continually drop in the computer
>>> hardware industry, and yet people still buy computer hardware.  Similarly,
>>> when a store has a "50% sale" to attract customers, it does not mean that
>>> this is the only time they interact with customers.  Inflationary
>>> currencies can achieve stability, but it comes at a price (ie the
>>> inflation).  Dr. Bernanke has described inflation as a tax.
>>>
>>> I think there's room for both systems.  As per the quote from the
>>> article.
>>>
>>> [[
>>> "My expectation is that it will never achieve importance and that it is
>>> likely to vanish all together, giving way to more robust means of payment
>>> of more stable mediums of exchange. However, it deserves the chance to
>>> compete"
>>> ]]
>>>
>>> Most transactions in bitcoin will happen off block by trusted third
>>> parties as part of an IOU system.  If these TTP's are firms they can (and
>>> do) comply with existing laws.  I think it's a reasonable balance because
>>> you choose if you want to use a trusted third party for the fee they
>>> charge, or you choose to go to the block chain, for the fees that miners
>>> charge.
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Background:
>>>> Former Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems
>>>> Department, IMF
>>>> http://www.compasscayman.com/cfr/company/Warren-Coats/
>>>>  http://works.bepress.com/warren_coats/
>>>>
>>>> Joseph Potvin
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Joseph Potvin
>> Operations Manager | Gestionnaire des opérations
>> The Opman Company | La compagnie Opman
>> http://www.projectmanagementhotel.com/projects/opman-portfolio
>> jpotvin@opman.ca
>> Mobile: 819-593-5983
>> LinkedIn (Google short URL): http://goo.gl/Ssp56
>>
>
>


-- 
Joseph Potvin
Operations Manager | Gestionnaire des opérations
The Opman Company | La compagnie Opman
http://www.projectmanagementhotel.com/projects/opman-portfolio
jpotvin@opman.ca
Mobile: 819-593-5983
LinkedIn (Google short URL): http://goo.gl/Ssp56

Received on Sunday, 26 January 2014 15:40:41 UTC