Re: size and network value

On 1 Jul 2010, at 21:39, Karl Dubost wrote:

> 
> Le 1 juil. 2010 à 04:17, Henry Story a écrit :
>> This is what Metcalf's law was attempting to do for the telecommunications network 
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf's_law
> 
> Metcalf is for material entities, not people.
> You put in contact phones, but someone will not necessary answers :)
> 
>> What it really gives you is the potential of the network given the size of a 
>> *telephone* network. How many people can be put in communication. 
> 
> 
> How many telephones can be put in communication. :)

yes, and of course the value lies in the possibility of joining someone.
Hence the value of portable phones, which make it even more likely to
join the person one is trying to contact...

> 
> You have to look at the Dunbar's number.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number
> 
> 	"Dunbar's number is a theoretical cognitive 
> 	limit to the number of people with whom one 
> 	can maintain stable social relationships."
> 	[…]
> 	"No precise value has been proposed for 
> 	Dunbar's number, but a commonly cited 
> 	approximation is 150."


Yes, I know dunbar's number. And clearly the aim is not to
contact everybody in the world. Though this does nearly happen on occasions
such as the Olympics, or sending a man to the moon. 

We are speaking of potentialities. With a telephone you can contact pretty much
anyone in the world. Of course you don't (just as you can drive everywhere with a car, but
most people don't) But during a catastrophe that potentiality is really helpful: you can contact people you never would have dreamt of contacting. Or when travelling
you can call hotels or friends of friends you never met. If those potentialities did not
exist the telephone network would not be so interesting.

And that was the case of e-mail in the 80ies. Usually they were limited to 
companies or small universities. And people would often point out that this was 
not so useful for their work. 

Now with email on the phone and available to anyone, this changes everything.
 
So one good criteria for a theory would be that it would explain the historical data
of the evolution and usefulness of telephone networks, email, etc...


Now, clearly, having a world wide social network is the same order of transformation.

> So on metcalf's law let us look at the value of:
>> 
>> France:   65 million^2 = 4225000000000000 potential connections
> 
> 
> For many social networks such as twitter, facebook, etc. and for the brands 
> who try to monetize these networks, "the word of mouth" is the key, because 
> people put above everything else the recommendation of a friend above 
> anything a brand could say about a product.

And they are quite right, that is how all trust is built up. As Linus Torvalds said
in a talk on his access control system Git [1]

[[
The way merging is done is the way real security is done... by a network of trust. If you have ever done any security work and it did not involve the concept of network of trust it wasn't security work. It was masturbation.
]]

But what has that to do with the discussion? Perhaps we can tie this back, by pointing out that you don't know who you are going to trust ahead of time.  And who their friends are you certainly don't know either. So you need to be able to work in a space where you can connect to anyone. Clearly if you know you can't the network is less valuable.


So how much bigger is such a network than any of the existing networks?

Henry


[1] 27 minutes into http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XpnKHJAok8


> You have to consider that the 
> "value" of social networks, so far, is made by brands and their ability to 
> sell products and services.
> 
> 
> 	93% - Percentage of customers who identify word of 
> 	mouth as the best, most reliable source about ideas 
> 	and information on products and services - up 26 pts. 
> 	vs. 25 years ago 
> 	Source: NOP World
> 
> 	67% - Percentage of consumer purchase decisions 
> 	primarily influenced by word of mouth, #1 factor 
> 	Source: Mckinsey/Thompson Lightstone
> 
> 	91% - Use social networks to stay in touch with 
> 	friends they see a lot
> 	Source: Pew Internet
> 
> Numbers hunted in this slides.
> http://www.slideshare.net/agentwildfire/agent-wildfire-cheat-sheet
> 
> 
> -- 
> Karl Dubost
> Montréal, QC, Canada
> http://www.la-grange.net/karl/
> 
>

Received on Thursday, 1 July 2010 21:00:32 UTC