Re: Don't disclose election results

On Wed, Jun 4, 2014 at 3:48 PM, Robin Berjon <robin@w3.org> wrote:

> On 04/06/2014 19:20 , "Jean-Charles (JC) Verdié" wrote:
>
>> Two points:
>>
>> How much a slate is being promoted by the AC Reps and also, as you know,
>> a few of us claim that the system is prone to be played by strategic
>> voting. Clear results would invalidate this paranoid assertion. Or not...
>>
>
> So, it would be pretty hard to let you carry out such an analysis without
> giving you access not just to the results but also to the details of who
> voted what exactly. Note that the more details, the harder they are to
> anonymise (e.g. if I give you for each member whether they voted for A, B,
> C, etc. then you can add those up and start guessing who's who).
>
> I can give you this information, admitting that none of this is grounded
> in solid statistical maths (I don't think that we have enough data anyway)
> but rather rough notions teased out from the noise.
>
> Being on a slate does appear to provide a boost. Well-known candidates on
> slates tend to outperform similarly well-known candidates not on a slate;
> and likewise (relatively) unknown candidates. It does not, however, seem to
> be more important than being a "recognised name" with good relationships
> across the AC.
>
> I hasten to point out that the only slates we've had have been the Kardell
> Reform Slates, so this says nothing about slates in general, just that one
> which seems to be popular with the AC these days — people want change! And
> even then, the effect might not come from the grouping or even the tenor of
> the message but rather from the fact that those candidates have a campaign
> manager pushing them, serving as sounding board, etc.
>
> As for strategic voting, only about half of AC reps vote for all slots.
> 20-25% vote for just one. (The rest distributes in between.) So there is no
> doubt that it is going on. The question is about whether it is going on at
> such a scale that you would get different results with a different voting
> method. On instinct I suspect not, but that's not information you can get
> from the data.
>
>
> --
> Robin Berjon - http://berjon.com/ - @robinberjon
>
>
I'd just like to add that "Kardell Reform Slate" is internationally
trademarked.... also, it's just people I support and urge other people to
for reasons I have expressed many times :)  Some of them don't know me, or
that I am even doing so.

Generally speaking, more people trying harder and making an effort to make
a solid case tends to yield better results... Doesn't seem like magic.

-- 
Brian Kardell :: @briankardell :: hitchjs.com