IE 10 browser share RE: Frequency Capping

Good discussion and vantage point.  Knowing IE 10 will not be supported on
earlier versions of Windows then Windows 7, I suggest  relooking at the base
that CAN install IE 10 as the baseline.  Second it does reflect time spent
online nor Microsoft's chance of winning the smart phone or tablet wars any
time soon.   Add to the fact in the EU users are presented a browser choice
on first run, (unless this has changed), I will bet dinner in Seattle that
IE will not surpass 20% on all web users (time spent) within 18 months of
launch worldwide.

 

In any case, IE will have an impact, not unlike Safari blocking 3P cookies
and other trends and innovation.  

 

 

From: Chris Mejia [mailto:chris.mejia@iab.net] 
Sent: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 9:22 PM
To: Craig Spiezle; 'Tamir Israel'
Cc: 'Grimmelmann, James'; W3C DNT Working Group Mailing List; Mike Zaneis;
Brendan Riordan-Butterworth
Subject: Re: Frequency Capping

 

First, I give MSFT the benefit of any market doubts- I don't think they are
in the game to lose- or at least not lose more market share than they have
already.  IE 10 represents a major upgrade (as compared with the most recent
previous versions), as it's tightly coupled with the long anticipated
Windows 8.  What's unique about Windows 8 is that its a SINGLE OS that's
designed to work across multiple devices: personal computers, phones,
tablets, and smart televisions.  Accordingly, IE 10 will be installed with
installations of Windows 8, on ALL those devices that run Windows 8 (as
opposed to previous versions of IE that were largely only installed on PCs).
>From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_8):

 

According to the Windows Design Team, Windows 8 has been "reimagined from
the chipset to the user experience,"
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_8#cite_note-5> [6] whereas Windows 7
was intended to be a more focused, incremental upgrade to the Windows line.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_8#cite_note-6> [7] Windows 8 features
a new user interface based on Microsoft's
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_(design_language)> Metro design
language, similar to that in  <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Phone>
Windows Phone. The new interface is designed to better suit
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touchscreen> touchscreen input, along with
traditional mouse and keyboard input. A version of Windows 8, called
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_RT> Windows RT, also adds support for
the  <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARM_architecture> ARM processor
architecture in addition to the previously supported x86 microprocessors
from  <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel> Intel,
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Micro_Devices> AMD and
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_Technologies> VIA.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_8#cite_note-7> [8]

 

30% (+/-) is a number that many have predicted, based on Microsoft's current
installed base of IE- it's a forward looking number (see graphic below or:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Usage_share_of_web_browsers_(Source_StatCo
unter).svg).  Loyal IE users will eventually upgrade to IE 10, especially as
MSFT will eventually   stop supporting previous versions.  My educated bet
is that MSFT will continue at or around 30% of the browser market, so long
as browsers are even relevant for accessing content.

 

Usage_share_of_web_browsers_(Source_StatCounter).svg.png

 

 

Chris Mejia | Digital Supply Chain Solutions | Ad Technology Group |
Interactive Advertising Bureau - IAB | chris.mejia@iab.net |w 212-380-4711 |
c 347-949-8279 | Skype christopheramejia | AIM oskibearchris | Twitter
@oskibearchris | LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismejia

 

 

From: Craig Spiezle <craigs@otalliance.org>
Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2012 20:41:30 -0400
To: Chris Mejia - IAB <chris.mejia@iab.net>, 'Tamir Israel'
<tisrael@cippic.ca>
Cc: "'Grimmelmann, James'" <James.Grimmelmann@nyls.edu>, W3C DNT Working
Group Mailing List <public-tracking@w3.org>, Mike Zaneis - IAB
<mike@iab.net>, Brendan Riordan-Butterworth - IAB <brendan@iab.net>
Subject: RE: Frequency Capping

 

Can you help us understand where your 30% number comes from?   It has taken
16 months since launch for IE 9 to capture 19% of the desktop based on users
(and this does not reflect mobile users where effectively IE is nonexistent)


 

While I do not disagree IE will have an impact, being realistic it is much
smaller than being suggested.   Based on market competition, I doubt IE 10
adoption will surpass IE 9.  .  (data source
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/browser-market-share.aspx?qprid=0http://mark
etshare.hitslink.com/browser-market-share.aspx?qprid=0 

 

Description: cid:image004.png@01CD4FBE.784D6110

 

Thanks 

 

 

From: Chris Mejia [mailto:chris.mejia@iab.net] 
Sent: Wednesday, July 11, 2012 7:13 PM
To: Tamir Israel
Cc: Grimmelmann, James; W3C DNT Working Group Mailing List; Mike Zaneis;
Brendan Riordan-Butterworth
Subject: Re: Frequency Capping

 

Hi Tamir,

 

Thanks for your reply--I appreciate the friendly nature of our back and
forth based on reaching a mutual understanding of positions. It's only
through this kind of friendly exchange that it might be possible for this
group to reach any sort of consensus, so I sincerely applaud you
sportsmanship.

 

I wish I could agree with this assertion:

 

I am not remotely convinced this spec is going to lead to ubiquitous

DNT-1, and I don't think this working group is currently considering

anything that might make this the case;

 

With Microsoft already shipping IE10 with DNT:1 defaulted to "on", there
will soon be 30+ percent of users broadcasting the DNT:1 signal.  30% may
not be ubiquitous in its own right, but if you factor in say one of two more
large 'trusted agents' defaulting to DNT:1 OR encouraging DNT:1, I think we
might reach ubiquity fairly quickly.  If the W3C has the power to stop
companies like MSFT from shipping this way, I'd love to see that happen
(unfortunately I don't think it's a likely outcome). Further to my point,
what happens when the UI of a trusted agent (say a Norton and/or Symantec)
asks users the question, "Do you want to be tracked?" without any other
context offered (this case is supported by most advocates on this forum)?
Naturally, people will opt to answer that context-lacking question "no" and
DNT:1 will be broadcast.  Unfortunately, controlling the ubiquity of DNT:1
signals being sent may now be well out of reach of the W3C's prevue in the
US, as it would be a voluntary spec here.  Some companies will encourage the
setting of DNT:1, others will not discourage it and I think we are at
ubiquity (or close to it).  This gets back to my original point when joining
the working group: without a clear definition and understanding of DNT:1 to
the user (what it means to the user AND to publishers), any mechanism
relying on the signal as a user-set-intention is fundamentally flawed.

 

Chris Mejia | Digital Supply Chain Solutions | Ad Technology Group |
Interactive Advertising Bureau - IAB

 

 

 

 

On 7/11/12 5:29 PM, "Tamir Israel" <tisrael@cippic.ca> wrote:

 

OK Chris, I agree. I think my point was that DNT-1 is less a rejection 

of the value exchange than, say, AdBlock or a similar plugin.

 

I understand that targeted impressions are worth more and I've heard 

they generate more click-through.

 

I simply meant to say that DNT-1 a.) still allows impressions; and b.) 

still allows contextual targeting (by site, etc.), so its value is not '0'.

 

Two quick side notes:

I am not remotely convinced this spec is going to lead to ubiquitous 

DNT-1, and I don't think this working group is currently considering 

anything that might make this the case; and

 

Also, I am no longer saying there is no value to F-capping for DNT-1s. 

It makes sense to me that at least some types of advertisers would want 

to just reach 'everyone' so would purchase, say, 10 million impressions 

hoping to reach 5-10 million people (whether targeted or not). On this 

scale, there is a definite risk of a DNT-1 user seeing the same 

advertisement more than once, and also there is a benefit to maximizing 

the ad campaign's reach, as desired, so some form of frequency capping 

would seem to have value.

 

On 7/11/2012 5:08 PM, Chris Mejia wrote:

Thanks Tamir.  I stand corrected--consumers who elect to express DNT:1 MAY

not have completely opted out of the value exchange, you're right.

However, their relative value to the value exchange certainly goes down.

To further explain, when users see un-targeted (randomly placed) ads that

are not based on their general interests, they are likely to ignore those

ads.  In ignoring those misplaced ads, it's a double-whammy on industry:

we pay to serve ads that the consumer will never engage with, nor buy

their products/services.  Obviously this decreases the relative value of

that consumer engagement and lowers the overall revenue the publisher may

charge an advertiser in connection with the serving of the advertiser's

ads to that non-targeted consumer.  In this case, f-capping would be even

more important from a cost-savings perspective; the more non-relevant ads

I serve a consumer, the more cost associated-- f-capping limits delivery

and thus limits costs.  Also, it's probably not a stretch to assume that

many advertisers may not want to serve their ads at all to consumers who

are expressing DNT:1.  Enter the digital divide once again: anti-targeting

may lead to a situation where the only ads being served to 'lower-value'

DNT:1 users are the ones everyone would rather avoid (annoying content ads

that are served only on a CPA basis).  Premium content ads are generally

very expensive to produce and serve (premium rich media ads cost more to

serve), so my educated guess is that advertisers wont want to take a

chance on where they will spend money serving these ads.  So imagine that

premium advertisers contractually obligate their publishers to set

f-capping at 0/24 for DNT:1 users (this means that the premium ad would

never be shown to the DNT:1 user).  To play the end game, if DNT:1 signals

were ubiquitous on the Web, the overall value of "free access" publishing

would go down and I believe there would be a rapid proliferation of

payment gateways in response (the money to pay for content and innovation

has to come from somewhere). Once again, enter the new digital divide

(where the 'haves' pay for access and the 'have nots" are denied access,

based on financial ability to pay), courtesy of this working group, IF we

don't get it right.

 

Chris Mejia | Digital Supply Chain Solutions | Ad Technology Group |

Interactive Advertising Bureau - IAB

 

 

 

On 7/11/12 1:15 PM, "Tamir Israel"<tisrael@cippic.ca>  wrote:

 

Chris -- I personally found your explanation very useful so thank you.

 

On 7/11/2012 3:27 PM, Chris Mejia wrote:

Advertisers have plenty of

reasonable business reasons to require f-capping in their contracts:

i.e.

a) not annoy consumers with overdelivery when such annoyance leads to

negative advertiser brand association, and b) not needlessly waste ad

impressions and money on serving ads over and over again to users who

have

opted out of the value exchange in the first place.

It's not clear to me that selecting a DNT-1 means opting out of the

value exchange. The very fact that you need to F-cap those who have

chosen to send a DNT-1 seems to imply that these impressions remain

valuable, at least to some extent (or, I imagine, no ad would be served

at all and we need not worry about annoying users with repeated

exposures or maximizing ROI).

 

Best,

Tamir