Re: Mobile Internet Devices

David,
   No definitive stats for the BoP segment's adoption of MIDs. But I would
consider three key end-to-end drivers for assessing the time-line of any
device/service adoption. In the MID context, this will be today's price of
MIDs, available data tariff plans and the current status of access network
speeds available to BoPs. All three at the moment do not favour MID
penetration at the lower segment.

However, there are some favourable developements which can help in its
adoption in the near future.

Intel and Nokia are among the most vocal proponents of MIDs. Both players
are also pushing WiMAX, which is considered as an alternative for rural
segment. Recent announcement of Nokia N810 with WiMAX interface being one
such initiative. To top it all, both Intel and Nokia are taking the BoP
segment quite seriously.

Most emerging markets are expected to issue licenses for 3G and WiMAX within
the next 2 to 3 years time. With competition, data tariff should converge to
an affordable flat rate. So, these should address the bottlenecks at the
network and tariff level. Also, there is a good possibility that operators
in emerging markets, like those seen in developed markets, might consider
refarming the 2G spectrum for 3G use and thereby prefer managing only one
network and save cost.

With regards to device adoption, one option, as you mentioned is through
replacements at higher end driving the second hand market. As far as I
know, in India, 20 - 30% of total handset sales comes from replacements.
This is around 70% in China. Majority of replacements happen at the
mid-tier. Replacement cycles at the lower BoP layer is perhaps longer than
18 months at the moment, as the utility is voice-centric. So, this is a
challenge for MID or any high end phone's penetration at the BoP level and
can slow down the adoption.

Most MIDs today are priced and positioned to compete at the higher end. SFR
in France has launched two models at EUR 249 + contract. For it to be
introduced at the BoP segment, we need the price to be sub 50$. A strip-down
version of the high end MIDs could just do the trick, if only players like
Intel and Nokia take the lead.

I am not aware of any MID initiatives or adoption at the BoP segment. But I
believe that instead of waiting for a market pull through second hand
market, operators in collaboration with governments and NGOs could and
should play a major role to hasten the introduction of such devices at the
lower segment by offering subsidized versions of the device with fixed
contracts.

The benefit of such an initiative are two folder. First being that we can
remove device as a bottleneck in offering services at reduced cost vis-a-vis
the case today where we try to work-around on the device limitations through
additional gateways and middleware which may not be relevant and
cost-effective in the long run for service providers. Secondly, such a move
can usher in innovative services for the lower segment, and offset the
device cost by generating new revenue streams.

The following news on such an aggressive push by an Indian operator can be
relevant in this discussion:

http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/nov/07rcom-to-launch-cheapest-smartphone-10000.htm

The interesting part of this article is the last statement which says that
the operator is planning a Rs 480 (approx. $10) internet-ready phone. I am
not aware of the details of the device. Assuming there is a contract
involved. But the important thing here is that we can expect a surge in
internet-enabled phones in the BoP segment with such initiatives.

Regards
Renjish







On Thu, Nov 6, 2008 at 2:22 PM, Ashbrook, David, VF-Group <
David.Ashbrook@vodafone.com> wrote:

>  Hi Renjish, good stuff!
>
> Do you have any definitive statistics on how long it would take this type
> of device to filter down to our target population. I know you mention 3-4
> years, but do we see this happening now, or do you know of any evidence on
> this? I assume its linked to how quickly higher tier users upgrade and thus
> how quickly the lower tier second hand market is seeded. Do we also have any
> stats on how often a lower tier user upgrades their device? We've heard
> anecdotally 1-2 years, but their device is handed down within the family. Do
> you have any thoughts on this?
>
> Thanks
>
> David
>
> *
>
> David Ashbrook
> Devices Team
> Vodafone Group R&D
>
> Tel: +44 (0)1635 665803
> Fax: +44 (0)1635 676147
> Mob: +44 (0)7919 994670
>
> E-mail: david.ashbrook@vodafone.com
>
> Vodafone Group Services Limited
> Registered Office: Faraday House, The Connection, Newbury, Berkshire RG14
> 2FN Registered in England No 3802001
> *
>
>
>  ------------------------------
> *From:* public-mw4d-request@w3.org [mailto:public-mw4d-request@w3.org] *On
> Behalf Of *Renjish Kumar
> *Sent:* 06 November 2008 07:34
> *To:* public-mw4d@w3.org
> *Subject:* Mobile Internet Devices
>
>   Hello,
>    Here is a study on the emergence of mobile Internet devices and its
> penetration forecasts.
>
> http://www.immr.org/1/immr_mids_summary.pdf
>
> Most of these currently are priced in the mid to high-end category and
> therefore not of immediate (within 3 to 4 years) impact on the customer
> segment that we are targeting, in this working group.
>
> However, I think we can include this device category in our roadmap
> document as one of the available emerging technologies in the Technologies
> section.
>
> Regards
> Renjish
>
>
>