- From: John F. Sowa <sowa@bestweb.net>
- Date: Mon, 27 Mar 2006 20:31:02 -0800
- To: Harry Halpin <hhalpin@ibiblio.org>
- CC: semantic-web@w3.org, Frank Manola <fmanola@acm.org>, Adrian Walker <adrianw@snet.net>, "Peter F. Patel-Schneider" <pfps@research.bell-labs.com>, p@virtualTaos.net, ONTAC-WG General Discussion <ontac-forum@colab.cim3.net>
Harry, Thanks for pointing to the "AI Winter" article, but the timing details are way off. The Minsky & Papert book came out in 1969, and in the US, there was a recession during Nixon's first term (around 1970), which caused a lot of cuts in research funds. And the Japanese 5th generation project, which started in 1980, caused a big boom in AI funding in the US. So the Wikipedia article saying that the AI winter came in the late 1970s was at least 8 years off (for the US at least). HH> Comments welcome - it's quite old and I'd like to revise > it at some point. Your comparison to Hilbert's program is interesting, but since the research was all done by mathematicians who were using their own (or their universities') funding, it didn't have much impact on the economy. I'd quibble with a lot of the details. For example, the frame problem is an artifact of the situation calculus, and most other approaches (e.g., pi calculus, event calculus, Petri nets, Pearl's belief networks, etc.) don't suffer from it. HH> I think the 800-pound gorilla in the room is not > the comparison John's making to Future System... FS started an IBM winter rather than an AI winter, but the main point I was making is that putting all your research eggs into a single basket with a single technology is an open invitation to disaster. The lesson of FS is that the following strategy, which has a lot of parallels to the SemWeb, is dangerous: 1. Selecting a single technology base without any prior design competition and without any experience with the technology before it is edicted as the official foundation. 2. Putting a management team/committee in place to guide and fund the research in lock step -- again without any design competition and without any practical experience before proposals are made into edicts. 3. Ignoring prior R & D experience that has been well documented in the literature and failing to evaluate the new proposals against alternatives, both mature and innovative. Many people have complained that the ANSI and ISO standards efforts have been reactive rather than proactive -- i.e., they react by giving their blessing to de facto standards with minor modifications instead of starting new projects "proactively". I have seen some proactive standards projects, and they made me appreciate the reactive approach. See my law of standards: http://www.jfsowa.com/computer/standard.htm HH> But right now I'd bet money on the Semantic Web Layer cake > due to their grasp of Web architecture. My complaint about the layer cake is that it puts the emphasis on syntax (bottom layers) rather than semantics (logic). Even then, it doesn't even recognize that there is something called pragmatics. I think that John McCarthy's Elephant proposal (from the late 1980s) was a lot closer to what is needed for the SemWeb than the layer cake. See the following article: http://www.jfsowa.com/pubs/arch.htm And by the way, we now have a very nice implementation of the Flexible Modular Framework (FMF), which is described in that article, and it really is a powerful tool for AI software development and deployment. The FMF supports any or all languages for message passing, including RDF and OWL, but also any variant of Common Logic, controlled English, or any other language, natural or artificial. HH> However, the Web 2.0 and all that jazz have to show, > people *want to share* not just web-pages but data > of all sorts. I agree. An approach like the FMF lets you put a wrapper around any system, new or old, to make it into a module, and translation modules can be inserted as needed to convert any format into any other -- something like that is necessary to support legacy systems with a smooth migration path and coexistence. John
Received on Tuesday, 28 March 2006 04:32:53 UTC