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Re: Looks like the US will be very competitive in the ASIC miner market.

From: Erik Anderson <eanders@pobox.com>
Date: Fri, 13 Sep 2013 14:16:36 -0400
Message-Id: <D02D91FA-979E-4EA4-8B03-4266ED0A8734@pobox.com>
To: Web Payments <public-webpayments@w3.org>
echnical Analysis, price analysis, quantity theory of money, and a little speculation.

Current bitcoins price patterns are exhibiting a breakout pattern.

"Quantity theory of money" will soon take over bitcoin prices. As investors/institutions start "holding" onto bitcoins such that they are held out of circulation for a couple-few years, supply goes down, demand goes up, watch out. The developers of bitcoin knew this.

Want to speculate on the value of a bitcoin a little under a simplified quantity theory?

(Online Gambling Market + Online Silk Roads Market + Variablexxx) / total # bitcoins = bitcoin price

Every time more Variablexxx are added and quantity can't supply demand.... What happens when a trillion dollar hedgefund steps into the bitcoin market? Sorry but thegenesisblock analysis is missing sooooo much.

Governments are being naive getting involved using bitcoins directly. If I were them I would declare bitcoins a private currency and counter with my own official government backed virtual currency, start slowing back on the supply of paper money, and make it easy for the public to use it.

Problem is the 99% of policy makers are lawyers and not technical savvy. Deer in the headlights. If they do this it won't be until it is too late.

Yes, there are other virtual currencies but until they hit the public eye they are... just noise... Until then bitcoin will be the gold. If you are worried about a new virtual currency you can always risk 1 bitcoin and exchange it for 10,000 of that other coin. :)

As a side note: Scrypt technology in litecoin may have a future as its far more memory intensive such it's more resistive to hardware attacks that ASIC exploit. I doubt the general public cares about this fact. Ease of use they do care about.

Erik

Sent from my iPhone

On Sep 13, 2013, at 12:30 PM, "David I. Lehn" <dil@lehn.org> wrote:

> On Thu, Sep 12, 2013 at 7:53 PM,  <eanders@pobox.com> wrote:
>> $6,000 2T miners
>> http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cointerra-introduces-two-low-cost-bitcoin-asic-mining-solutions-2013-09-12
> 
> $3500 for a "low-cost" "entry-level" model?  And using some fuzzy
> estimates, barely worth the risk and trouble at only a cumulative
> profit over a year of ~50% the cost of the hardware itself.  Then the
> hardware loses money to operate.  This is a strange game.
> 
> http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
> 
> -dave
> 
Received on Friday, 13 September 2013 21:06:54 UTC

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