Re: Cost/Benefit Anyone? Re: Vote for my Semantic Web presentation at SXSW

Kingsley,

On 8/18/2011 1:52 PM, Kingsley Idehen wrote:
> On 8/18/11 1:40 PM, Patrick Durusau wrote:
>> Kingsley,
>>
>> From below:
>>
>>> This critical value only materializes via appropriate "context 
>>> lenses". For decision makers it is always via opportunity costs.  If 
>>> someone else is eating you lunch by disrupting your market you 
>>> simply have to respond. Thus, on this side of the fence its better 
>>> to focus on eating lunch rather than warning about the possibility 
>>> of doing so, or outlining how it could be done. Just do it! 
>>
>> I appreciate the sentiment, "Just do it!" as my close friend Jack 
>> Park says it fairly often.
>>
>> But "Just do it!" doesn't answer the question of cost/benefit.
>
> I mean: just start eating the lunch i.e., make a solution that takes 
> advantage of an opportunity en route to market disruption. Trouble 
> with the Semantic Web is that people spend too much time arguing and 
> postulating. Ironically, when TimBL worked on the early WWW, his 
> mindset was: just do it! :-)
>
Still dodging the question I see. ;-)

>>
>> It avoids it in favor of advocacy.
>
> See my comments above. You are skewing my comments to match you 
> desired outcome, methinks.
>
You reach that conclusion pretty frequently.

I ask for hard numbers, you say that isn't your question and/or skewing 
your comments.

>>
>> Example: Privacy controls and Facebook. How much would it cost to 
>> solve this problem?
>
> I assume you know the costs of the above.
> It won't cost north of a billion dollars to make a WebID based 
> solution. In short, such a thing has existed for a long time, 
> depending on your "context lenses" .
>

I assume everyone here is familiar with: http://www.w3.org/wiki/WebID ?

So we need to take the number of users who have a WebID and subtract 
that from the number of FaceBook users.

Yes?

The remaining number need a WebID or some substantial portion, yes?

So who bears that cost? Each of those users? It cost each of them 
something to get a WebID. Yes?

What is their benefit from getting that WebID? Will it outweigh their 
cost in their eyes?

>> Then, what increase in revenue will result from solving it?
>
> FB -- less vulnerability and bleed.
>
> Startups or Smartups: massive opportunity to make sales by solving a 
> palpable problem.
>
>>
>> Or if Facebook's lunch is going to be eaten, say by G+, then why 
>> doesn't G+ solve the problem?
>
> G+ is trying to do just that, but in the wrong Web dimension. That's 
> why neither G+ nor FB have been able to solve the identity 
> reconciliation riddle.
>
Maybe you share your observations with G and FB. ;-)

Seriously, I don't think they are as dumb as everyone seems to think.

It may well be they have had this very discussion and decided it isn't 
cost effective to address.

>>
>> Are privacy controls are a non-problem?
>>
>> Your "context lenses."
>>
>> True, you can market a product/service that no one has ever seen 
>> before. Like pet rocks.
>>
>> And they "just did it!"
>>
>> With one important difference.
>>
>> Their *doing it* did not depend upon the gratuitous efforts of 
>> thousands if not millions of others.
>
> Don't quite get your point. I am talking about a solution that starts 
> off with identity reconciliation, passes through access control lists, 
> and ultimately makes virtues of heterogeneous data virtualization 
> clearer re. data integration pain alleviation.
>
> In the above we have a market place north of 100 Billion Dollars.
>

Yes, but your solution: "...starts off with identity reconciliation..."

Sure, start with the critical problem already solved and you really are 
at a "...market place north of 100 Billion Dollars...", but that is all 
in your imagination.

Having a system of assigned and reconciled WebIDs isn't a zero cost to 
users or businesses solution. It is going to cost someone to assign and 
reconcile those WebIDs. Yes?

Since it is your solution, may I ask who is going to pay that cost?

>>
>> Isn't that an important distinction?
>
> Yes, and one that has never been lost on me :-)
>

Interested to hear your answer since that distinction has never been 
lost on you.

Patrick


> Kingsley
>>
>> Hope you are having a great day!
>>
>> Patrick
>>
>>
>> On 8/18/2011 10:54 AM, Kingsley Idehen wrote:
>>> On 8/18/11 10:25 AM, Patrick Durusau wrote:
>>>> Kingsley,
>>>>
>>>> Your characterization of "problems" is spot on:
>>>>
>>>> On 8/18/2011 9:01 AM, Kingsley Idehen wrote:
>>>>
>>>> <snip>
>>>>
>>>>> Linked Data addresses many real world problems. The trouble is 
>>>>> that problems are subjective. If you have experienced a problem it 
>>>>> doesn't exist. If you don't understand a problem it doesn't exist. 
>>>>> If you don't know a problem exists then again it doesn't exist in 
>>>>> you context.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> But you left out: The recognized "problem" must *cost more* than 
>>>> the cost of addressing it.
>>>
>>> Yes. Now in my case I assumed the above to be implicit when context 
>>> is about a solution or solutions :-)
>>>
>>> If a solution costs more than the problem, it is a problem^n matter. 
>>> No good.
>>>
>>>>
>>>> A favorable cost/benefit ratio has to be recognized by the people 
>>>> being called upon to make the investment in solutions.
>>>
>>> Always! Investment evaluation 101 for any business oriented decision 
>>> maker.
>>>
>>>>
>>>> That is recognition of a favorable cost/benefit ratio by the W3C 
>>>> and company is insufficient.
>>>>
>>>> Yes?
>>>
>>> Yes-ish. And here's why. Implementation cost is a tricky factor, one 
>>> typically glossed over in marketing communications that more often 
>>> than not blind side decision makers; especially those that are 
>>> extremely technically challenged. Note, when I say "technically 
>>> challenged" I am not referring to programming skills. I am referring 
>>> to basic understanding of technology as it applies to a given domain 
>>> e.g. the enterprise.
>>>
>>> Back to the W3C and "The Semantic Web Project". In this case, the 
>>> big issue is that degree of unobtrusive delivery hasn't been a 
>>> leading factor -- bar SPARQL where its deliberate SQL proximity is 
>>> all about unobtrusive implementation and adoption. Ditto R2RML .
>>>
>>> RDF is an example of a poorly orchestrated revolution at the syntax 
>>> level that is implicitly obtrusive at adoption and implementation 
>>> time. It is in this context I agree fully with you. There was a 
>>> misconception that RDF would be adopted like HTML, just like that. 
>>> As we can all see today, that never happened and will never happened 
>>> via revolution.
>>>
>>> What can happen, unobtrusively, is the use and appreciation of 
>>> solutions that generate Linked Data (expressed using a variety of 
>>> syntaxes and serialized in a variety of formats). That's why we've 
>>> invested so much time in both Linked Data Middleware and DBMS 
>>> technology for ingestion, indexing, querying, and serialization.
>>>>
>>>>> For the umpteenth time here are three real world problems 
>>>>> addressed effectively by Linked Data courtesy of AWWW 
>>>>> (Architecture of the World Wide Web):
>>>>>
>>>>> 1. Verifiable Identifiers -- as delivered via WebID (leveraging 
>>>>> Trust Logic and FOAF)
>>>>> 2. Access Control Lists -- an application of WebID and Web Access 
>>>>> Control Ontology
>>>>> 3. Heterogeneous Data Access and Integration -- basically taking 
>>>>> use beyond the limits of ODBC, JDBC etc..
>>>>>
>>>>> Let's apply the items above to some contemporary solutions that 
>>>>> illuminate the costs of not addressing the above:
>>>>>
>>>>> 1. G+ -- the "real name" debacle is WebID 101 re. pseudonyms, 
>>>>> synonyms, and anonymity
>>>>> 2. Facebook -- all the privacy shortcomings boil down to not 
>>>>> understanding the power of InterWeb scale verifiable identifiers 
>>>>> and access control lists
>>>>> 3. Twitter -- inability to turn Tweets into structured annotations 
>>>>> that are basically nano-memes
>>>>> 4. Email, Comment, Pingback SPAM -- a result of not being able to 
>>>>> verify identifiers
>>>>> 5. Precision Find -- going beyond the imprecision of Search 
>>>>> Engines whereby subject attribute and properties are used to 
>>>>> contextually discover relevant things (explicitly or 
>>>>> serendipitously).
>>>>>
>>>>> The problem isn't really a shortage of solutions, far from it.
>>>>>
>>>> For the sake of argument only, conceding these are viable 
>>>> solutions, the question is:
>>>>
>>>> Do they provide more benefit than they cost?
>>>
>>> Yes. They do, unequivocally.
>>>>
>>>> If that can't be answered favorably, in hard currency (or some 
>>>> other continuum of value that appeals to particular investors), no 
>>>> one is going to make the investment.
>>>>
>>>> Economics 101.
>>>
>>> This critical value only materializes via appropriate "context 
>>> lenses". For decision makers it is always via opportunity costs.  If 
>>> someone else is eating you lunch by disrupting your market you 
>>> simply have to respond. Thus, on this side of the fence its better 
>>> to focus on eating lunch rather than warning about the possibility 
>>> of doing so, or outlining how it could be done. Just do it!
>>>
>>>>
>>>> That isn't specific to SemWeb but any solution to a problem.
>>>
>>> Yes!
>>>
>>>> The solution has to provide a favorable cost/benefit ratio or it 
>>>> won't be adopted. Or at least not widely.
>>>>
>>>> Hope you are having a great day!
>>>>
>>>> Patrick
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>

-- 
Patrick Durusau
patrick@durusau.net
Chair, V1 - US TAG to JTC 1/SC 34
Convener, JTC 1/SC 34/WG 3 (Topic Maps)
Editor, OpenDocument Format TC (OASIS), Project Editor ISO/IEC 26300
Co-Editor, ISO/IEC 13250-1, 13250-5 (Topic Maps)

Another Word For It (blog): http://tm.durusau.net
Homepage: http://www.durusau.net
Twitter: patrickDurusau

Received on Thursday, 18 August 2011 18:49:38 UTC