- From: <alexandre.monnin@web-and-philosophy.org>
- Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2016 09:00:16 +0100
- To: "public-philoweb@w3.org" <public-philoweb@w3.org>
Le Tue, 26 Jan 2016 02:00:04 +0100, Jack Jamieson <jack.jamieson@mail.utoronto.ca> a écrit: > Hi everyone, I think this is probably the original source, a conference > paper from Gerhard Fettweis and Ernesto Zimmermann: > https://mns.ifn.et.tu-dresden.de/Lists/CustomListDefinitions-RoadmapListInstance/Attachments/2/Fettweis_G_WPMC_08.pdf > > It’s a short read, and the relevant passage is: > > Currently, server farms and telecommunications infrastructure are > responsible for roughly 3% of the world wide electricity consumption. If > the present growth trend of 16% per year continues, as the increase of > internet traffic[2] and the number of mobile phone subscribers > suggests3 , this consumption rises by a factor of 30 in only 23 years: > the current level of world electricity consumption. > > The overall growth trend seems to be extrapolated from two sets of > studies. > > 1) Projecting a 40% annual growth in IP traffic: > > [13] Atsushi Ogasawara “Energy Issues Confronting the ICT Sector”, > Science & Technology Trends Quarterly Review, No. 21, October 2006 > and > [19] Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast and Methodology, > 2007–2012, available online from http://www.cisco.com/ > > 2) extrapolating growth in mobile phones from growth in India > [14] Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Press release available at > http://www.trai.gov.in/trai/upload/PressReleases/511/pr22nov07no96.pdf > > My impression is that this projects a worst case scenario that could > occur if growth is consistent for the next 30 years, and the energy > efficiency of web technologies stagnates over the same period. The > reality will probably be less extreme (one hopes!). Indeed, some of these studies are here to be proven wrong by our actions (not all of them, unfortunately). BTW, thank you very much for the careful research! > At any rate, I'm very pleased to see the creation of this group. One of > my interests is material impacts of the web – a set of technologies that > is so often presented as immaterial (e.g. in popular conceptions of "the > cloud”) – and ecological impacts are a big part of this. Indeed. Infrastructure studies can be very helpful here... Many thanks again for your support :) Best, A. > Regards, > > Jack Jamieson > PhD Student, Faculty of Information, University of Toronto > jack.jamieson@mail.utoronto.ca<mailto:jack.jamieson@mail.utoronto.ca> > > On Jan 25, 2016, at 12:37 PM, > alexandre.monnin@web-and-philosophy.org<mailto:alexandre.monnin@web-and-philosophy.org> > wrote: > > Hi, > > Le Mon, 25 Jan 2016 11:37:57 +0100, Brandt Dainow > <bd@thinkmetrics.com<mailto:bd@thinkmetrics.com>> a écrit: > > Hi - I am not sure the figures for energy consumption will stand close > examination. I have read the paper for which Alexandre kindly provide > the link. Its source for these numbers is an article in ZDNET, which is > a commercial, not peer-reviewed, publication. In which they state: > > "Dans 25 ans, si les technologies informatiques ne progressent pas, > l’internet consommera autant d’énergie que l’humanité en 2008. C’est le > calcul qu’a réalisé Gerhard Fettweis de l’Université de Dresde." > > Funnily, I've discussed with someone from Ademe about this point and he > confirmed it was a study from Dresden. I could ask him the exact source. > > This said, I think part of the group interest could be to find means to > improve the way we access the source behind such studies (that's just > one example). > > They also cite a number of studies making claims such as "one search of > Google uses the same energy as one hour's use of a lightbulb." > > Which I haven't mentioned myself ;)) Mainly because the group, again, > should not be just about IT & energy to my mind. > > The studies they quote are not researched, but uncited claims made by > eco-groups, such as Green IT. On a purely factual basis, such a claim > is meaningless - what sort of lightbulb, halogen, neon, etc? Of what > strength? ZDNet do not offer a formal citation for the Fettweis number, > even though they provide formal citations for other documents. I have > looked at Gerhard Fettweis's page at the University of Dresden, where he > is Vodaphone Chair of Mobile Communications. There is nothing in his > list of publications related to this issue. His publications are all > concerned with the technology of mobile phones. Some of these do > discuss energy efficiency, so it is possible he mentions this figure in > one of those publications. However, I cannot find any publication by > him which looks like it could be a direct study from which this number > is a research finding. IF he is the source of this figure, then it > looks more probable he is quoting another study. > > On the basis of my research, I have to conclude that we do not have a > proper source for this figure because it cannot be traced to any > originating publication. I therefore suggest it is an unsafe figure to > use in any debate because it is easily challenged, but lacks any > supporting evidence which could be used to defend it. > > I would love to find proper evidence to support this claim so I could > use it in my own research into the ethical implications of emerging > ICT's, so if anyone can find a reliable source, I would be interested to > see it. > > Helping to find and reference such evidence could be part of our > discussion... > > Best, > A. > > Regards, > Brandt Dainow > brandt.dainow@gmail.com<mailto:brandt.dainow@gmail.com> > > https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Brandt_Dainow > http://www.imediaconnection.com/profiles/brandt.dainow > > > -----Original Message----- > From: alexandre.monnin@web-and-philosophy.org > [mailto:alexandre.monnin@web-and-philosophy.org] > Sent: 23 January 2016 15:49 > To: public-philoweb@w3.org > Subject: Re: Proposal for a new W3C CG: "Web We Can Afford" > > Hi Henry, > > Le Thu, 21 Jan 2016 20:58:13 +0100, Henry Story > <henry.story@bblfish.net> a crit: > > > On 21 Jan 2016, at 17:10, alexandre.monnin@web-and-philosophy.org wrote: > > > Here is the description of the group: > > Most scientists now seem to agree that we've entered a new epoch dubbed > the "Anthropocene", where the environmental consequences of human > development have a tremendous impact on Earth's equilibrium. Those > effects are already set in motion and will have far-reaching > consequences in the coming years despite all the measures we could take > to mitigate them (considering we simply do not fail to take action). > While trying to avoid some of the consequences of the Anthropocene is > an issue that is well-worth striving for, another task would be to > reconsider the design of things at the time of the Anthropocene and > that includes the Web. For instance, a 2008 study by the University of > Dresden stated that if no measure was taken, the energy needed to power > the infrastructure of the Web in 2030 would be tantamount to the energy > consumed by humanity in 2008. > > Is there a link to the study? > > I quote a study from Ademe (the French angency for the environment) which > mentions it: > http://www.presse.ademe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Web-Energy-Archive-Note-de-synth%C3%A8se.fr_2.doc > > The agendas of the stakeholders who are trying to set the Web forward > in motion are mainly focused on adding new technological layers to the > existing ones. Yet, the logic behind these developments remains that of > tapping into unlimited resources, not limited ones. > > It is true that the PCs behind Google running Linux were built for the > PC industry and have been well known to be the least energy efficient. > Still in this space there is huge opportunity for improvement. > > True. The question regarding improvement is whether you improve to do > less > or more (so that it may eventually lead to negative results). > > When I was working at Sun Microsystems, we developed the T series of > microprocessors that were very efficient in energy > consumption. Sun argued that the energy saving alone could pay back for > these very expensive computers within one year > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPARC_T-Series > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPARC_T-Series> > > The latest of these now have 32 cores, 256 threads > https://www.oracle.com/servers/sparc/silicon-expression-of-oracle-strategy.html > <https://www.oracle.com/servers/sparc/silicon-expression-of-oracle-strategy.html> > > The large cloud providers consume a lot of electricity, but they also > have staff to measure that electricity consumed, and the > money to optimize as much as possible out of it. Those optimizations > then find their way into software architectures that > can be more widely used in more distributed networks which can use solar > engergy, heat, etc to power the IoT of a home. > > Henry, please note that this group is not about energy optimization in > IT. > It's about assessing the impact of IT but more than that, about the kind > of IT we need (if any) in a world that will be forever changed in just a > few years, facing effect that are already set in motion. > > I was happily surprised yesterday to discuss with lots of Inria > researchers who are more interested in this issue, which has to do with > notion of imminent collapse, that with the so-called ecological > "transition". > > Lots of endeavors are currently focused on reshaping the Web into a > "Web we want", a redecentralized open Web fit for an enlightened > digital age. Those who advocate such an agenda and those who oppose it > generally both share a common assumption: that enlightened or not, the > future will be even more digital than the present. Yet, life at the > time of the Anthropocene, at least in the coming decades, might not > remain as pervasively digital as it is today. Other efforts that see > the ongoing battle for the decentralization of the Web as an > opportunity to downscale it (in particular in Africa) seem to be > aware of that. Maybe it's time to take into account other perspectives > on the future and concretely act towards building a sustain-able (Tony > Fry) Web. In other words, a Web We Can Afford. This group would like to > reconcile the development of the Web and an awareness to the > environmental issues by appealing to Web architects and designers, > eco-designers, activists, philosophers, social scientists, etc., so as > to make the issue a public one to begin with, before devising a set of > guidelines as a first step towards concrete action. > > I think it's interesting. This may actually be a topic for the Web > Science group ( see Southampton ) to investigate. > > Let's ask Les then! ;) > > I have a feeling that this is a very holistic type of problem. Because > one cannot just look at the electricty consumed one has to look at the > efficiencies gained through that consumption. One has to consider > exponential improvements in efficiency at all levels, from moving stuff, > to capturing and transforming energy, to knwledge sharing, which itself > can advance even further the improvements in the other areas. > > Odds are, for such improvements to have a positive effect, you'll need to > tackle difficult political issues. Optimization (which is not a silver > bulet) is not all there is to these complex questions. > > Best, > A. > > > > > -- > > > * Membre du collège d'experts Open Data de la mission Etalab du Premier > Ministre > * Chercheur associé chez Inria (EPI Wimmics, Sophia Antipolis) > * Co-initiateur du projet DBpedia Francophone et SemanticPedia > * Docteur en philosophie à Paris 1 Panthéon -Sorbonne (PHICO, EXeCO) - > Thèse sur la philosophie du Web : disponible et annotable sur > http://philoweb.org<http://philoweb.org/> > * Co-chair du Community Group "Philosophy of the Web" au W3C > * Organisateur des "Rencontres du Web de données" > > http://web-and-philosophy.org/, > Twitter : @aamonnz & @PhiloWeb, > PhiloWeb on Dailymotion, PhiloWeb discussion list @INRIA > -- * Membre du collège d'experts Open Data de la mission Etalab du Premier Ministre * Chercheur associé chez Inria (EPI Wimmics, Sophia Antipolis) * Co-initiateur du projet DBpedia Francophone et SemanticPedia * Docteur en philosophie à Paris 1 Panthéon -Sorbonne (PHICO, EXeCO) - Thèse sur la philosophie du Web : disponible et annotable sur http://philoweb.org * Co-chair du Community Group "Philosophy of the Web" au W3C * Organisateur des "Rencontres du Web de données" http://web-and-philosophy.org/, Twitter : @aamonnz & @PhiloWeb, PhiloWeb on Dailymotion, PhiloWeb discussion list @INRIA
Received on Wednesday, 27 January 2016 08:00:53 UTC